Hopefully now that I
have more time on my hands, I can sit and write more, unless I am feeling lazy,
than I need to push myself to write more. Wither these articles attracts a
large number of readers or not, is not the concern, but expressing my views of
my country’s situation and putting it out to the world is.
My views in this
article, or any article I write are my own. I write facts that I have known and
have experienced throughout my life. I am an Afghan and do not support tribal
and/or ethnic purposes but only the truth. Please do not take my comments to be
racist because they are not, they are the harsh reality of Afghanistan, which I
hope one day doesn’t remain anymore.
With 2014 elections coming up, and the previous records of
the two elections that we have held in the country, it does not look so good,
but one can always be hopeful of a miracle shooting out of a donkey’s ass.
But the funny and painful part of the elections in
Afghanistan is, that large number of candidates, most of whom aren’t even out
of high school turn up to take seats. In 2004 presidential elections, we had 18
presidential candidates. While in 2009, we had 37. Than the parliamentary
elections, more than 2000 candidates out of the 34 provinces of Afghanistan
signed up to run. That is an average of at least 60 candidates per province.
Although in Afghanistan, number of candidates allocated for the particular
province is according to the population of that province. This is not
democracy, this is mocking-democracy.
The government of Afghanistan, partial from the decision
and/or thoughts of it's people, alongside the United States, wants a
negotiation of peace with the Taliban while the normal Afghan who has suffered
the Taliban regime and have lost family members to the regime, can and will
never want Taliban to gain any kind of control over Afghanistan again. Be that
as it may, what would it mean for the Taliban to come back? Like Taliban, the
Afghan Government also has to put in place demands made in order for the peace
process to go through, that is if the peace process is successful and the
government of Afghanistan, partial from the US can cut any deal with it's
enemy, which until now has not been the case. Afghanistan's peace council, one
entity that the GoA seems to put too much importance on, has not achieved any
major goal other than attracting some low level Taliban to put down their
weapons and join the government. At times, these efforts of peace have resulted
in deadly consequences. One major example being the death of the Organization's
chief, Burhanuddin Rabbani, by the hands of the same Taliban who disguised to
come in for negotiations on 20th September 2011.
Lets say that the Taliban regime and the GoA do start peace
talks, and do negotiate with each other, first off, it will be timely and will
not effect into anything until the upcoming elections in 2014. Major parts of
Afghanistan suffers from insurgency and will not be able to vote because like
past elections, the Taliban, true to their threats, at least to the Afghan
civilians, will cut off the fingers of those who vote. An example being the
2010 parliamentary elections in the Central Province of Ghazni where Hazara
candidates only won because the Pashtoons were too scared to go to the polling
stations.
Second, if the Taliban do negotiate a deal with the Afghan
Government, what will the terms be? Will ordinary Afghans accept the return of
Taliban to power? Not likely. Will they accept the terms Taliban put forth in
order for the negotiations to go forward? Not in a million years. But the
Afghan Government has always said that they as a representative of the people,
will do so and so, so it will not be different from any other time.
Whatever the result, it is the Afghan population that
suffers the major backlashes of every political deal made gone wrong. Unfortunately,
Afghanistan has a very bad reputation when it comes to governments and ruling
parties in the past as well as present. Largely, any Afghan Government since
the time of King Babur Shah has failed to govern the people for long periods of
time because they have failed to include major parts of the society in the
decision making process of it's government. Secondly, Afghan leaders who have
been gripping power for so long, be that at the barrel of a gun or use of
money, are not willing to give up power. So they either cling to what they have
or go against the party in power, in collateral ways that makes the Afghans
suffer. The political parties in Afghanistan are young, none of them have
background of more than five decades, most of them don't even have one decade. Their
understanding of politics, public service, and foreign relations are very
little. Most of those who run the country, or want to run the country and
already have major public support, do not have the right education and only
have the support because of the era of war in Afghanistan.
Recently I visited the office of one of these candidates in
Kabul, who thanks to American contracts and the endless fuel of corruption
money has enough to elect himself for the presidential elections in 2014. But
the guy has little knowledge of anything other than how to tactically remove
enemy from his land. That is what he did and that is what he best knows. His
son and head of his campaign told me and my friend that money is no issue, if
we wants contracts, it is no issue, we just have to build a campaign office in
Ghazni and get the support of people and we will get whatever we wanted. Point
is, I don't even like the guy, don't like anything about him, so why would I
open a campaign office for him just for money? Maybe I am stupid but I will
never work for money that has been robbed from the souls of my fellow Afghans.
As much as I don't like to say it, Afghanistan unfortunately
still remains a country where tribal affiliation is paramount. Any candidate
who wants to win has to have the backing of other tribal leaders in order to
win. So it is clear that it is not going to be a run for the best guy with the
best talent for the job wins, but the one who has the backing of political
leaders in different tribes. There is no real requirement for a presidential
candidate, other than his background in the country. A person, who yesterday
had no education, today has a fake diploma in something and elects himself as a
president.
Major runners for the last elections were Hamid Karzai,
Abdullah Abdullah, Ramazan Bashardost, and Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai. Two of whom
are Pashtoons. Ashraf Ghani, despite his career is still viewed to be very racist.
Abdullah Abdullah, like last time will use anyone in his ghostly background
pictures to get the votes. But the character that is most interesting in
Ramazan Bashardost[1]. Although
chances of him winning and becoming the next president are slim, he has shown
in the past years that he is someone who cares about the people of Afghanistan.
He is the only Afghan MP who lives in a one-room apartment, drinking tea and
has a small car covered in Afghan flag, a driver and no bodyguards.
Possible candidates for the 2014 elections are Qayoom Karzai
(Hamid Karzai's half brother), Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, Abdullah Abdullah, Dr.
Ramazan Bashardost, Governor of the eastern Nangarhar Gul Agha Shirzai, Yonus
Qanuni, Fawzia Kofi (only female cadidate so far) Ali Ahmad Jalali, and Atta
Mohammad Noor[2]
I don't doubt that there are more candidates, like last
time, it might exceed 37 but the listing above is the political heavyweights
with high chance of winning.
National Front Afghanistan/ NFA, members of which are
non-pashtoons might win this election if the party remains intact. This party is
a major threat to other candidates who will not support a non-pashtoon
government. Furthermore, if the party bags most votes, it could be a turning
point for Afghanistan, since a different tribe, other than Pashtoons has not
led Afghanistan for so long, not including the short term presidency of Rabbani.
Plus, NFA is major opposition to the Pakistani backed Taliban. Pakistan and
Taliban alike will never support a government of that background. Pashtoons who
fear the backlash from these tribal elders in the grip of power might do the
same. Pakistan wants a government in Afghanistan that it can manipulate. For
the past decade, it has manipulated the government from the inside and using
insurgency as a tool to put Afghanistan under pressure. Meanwhile India and
China are racing towards mining in Afghanistan, which if successful, might
bring an economic stability to Afghanistan and pave the way to a better future
long awaited for.
Although troop drawdown will occur in 2014, it is still not
clear how many will stay back in Afghanistan. The US has requested for at least
nine bases in the country, apart from the Special Forces FOB’s that will remain
to train the Afghan National Army around the country and assist with missions.
One interesting thing that I saw while traveling in Kashmir,
northen India is the heavy presence of Indian troops. Locals think that the
troop presence is because of foreign troop pullout from Afghanistan. They think
that Indian Military fear Taliban shift interest from Afghanistan to India
after 2014. I laughed. Taliban and Pakistan will never shift attention from
Afghanistan, they are drawn to Afghanistan like a dog to meat.
These countries, along with Afghanistan neighbors and those
who have an interest, will play and back politicians who they can use for their
own benefit. Plus, like last elections, there might be major vote loitering to
get the votes necessary for Karzai’s backed government, since a) he doesn’t want
to go to jail if an opposition government wins and b) he still wants to control
the faith of Afghanistan from the backgrounds.
The faith of Afghanistan lies in the hand of those who wins
the 2014 elections, it can’t be predicted who wins the upcoming election but
Karzai might play his tricks and make his brother win again, which might lead
to a major coup from the opposition, or Atta Mohammad Noor will win, which will
lead to a new front for Pakistan and Taliban. Whatever the result, Afghans hope
and long for a better future for the country.
Major challenges still remain to be fought. A government in
Afghanistan who tends to people’s needs instead of robbing them of everything
they have got is direly needed, but will Afghans get that Government despite
all the power play and corruption is difficult to say.
[1] "In 1983, Bashardost
left Pakistan for France where he spent over 20 years, earning degrees in law
and political science. In 1989 he enrolled at Garonable University where he did
his Masters in Law. In 1990, he did his Masters in Diplomacy from Paris University.
In 1992, he did his Masters in Political Science. In 1995, Bashardost received
his Ph.D in Law from France’s Tolos University. He wrote his thesis on the UN’s
role against the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan."--from his page, see here
http://www.ramazanbashardost.com/spip.php?article42
[2] Atta Mohammad Noor is a member of National
Front of Afghanistan [NFA], which includes political heavyweights like Gen.
Abdul Rashid Dostum, Hajji Mohammad Mohaqeq, Ahmad Zia Masood and former NDS
chief Amrullah Saleh. all of these leaders are non-pashtoons who formed NFA to
co-opt and go against the Pashtoon backed Hamid Karzai and any other candidate
who might be supported by him. They later elected Atta Mohammad Noor, presently
the Governor of Balkh Province to run as a presidential candidate in the 2014
elections. Atta Mohammad Noor is a former Jihadi leader who during the war
against the Soviets, served as a military commander for
Burhanuddin Rabbani's Jamiat-i Islami. He and Abdul Rashid Dostum were bitter
rivals dating back to the Soviet war when he and Dostum fought on opposite
sides. but what made Dostum come to the table is the fact that Karzai didn't
stand to his promise when he was backed by the General in the 2009 presidential
elections. Hajji Mohammad Mohaqeq, a Hazara tribal leader has the same reasons
for forming the party.) See Atta's biography here:http://www.afghan-bios.info/index.php?option=com_afghanbios&id=229&task=view&total=2755&start=332&Itemid=2
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